CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SAT 29/01 - 06Z SUN 30/01 2005
ISSUED: 28/01 20:51Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across S Greece ... the Aegean Sea and W Turkey.

General thunderstorms are forecast across the central Mediterranean and SE Europe.

SYNOPSIS

Large-scale ... elongated upper low expected to exhibit two centers on Saturday morning ... one over N Italy and the other one over the Baltic States ... will not undergo much of a change over the period. This trough will maintain extensive SFC low covering much of the central Mediterranean and SE Europe ... with the main center expected over the Tyrrhenian Sea through Saturday. This feature ... together with large-scale SFC high parked over the E Atlantic ... will continue to advect continental polar/arctic air masses deep into SW and S Europe.

DISCUSSION

...S Greece ... the Aegean Sea ... W Turkey....
Plume of relatively warm/moist air is spreading north across the Aegean Region ... Turkey and the Black Sea E of the Mediterranean low. It looks that steep lapse rates will overspread relatively moist BL ... which may result in a few 100 J/kg of CAPE. This scenario is qualitatively supported by NMM and GFS 12Z.

Deep shear on the order of 30 m/s ... and low-level shear of 10+ m/s coupled with some veering should support rotating updrafts with the potential for large hail ... severe wind gusts and a tornado or two. Given rather strong CVA max overspreading the area ... storms may develop into linear MCS late in the day along cold frontal boundary stretching from NE Greece southward into Libya. Storms may struggle to survive as thay move inland into Turkey ... but kinematic fields there will likely be more than adequate for severe ... hence W Turkey is included in the SLGT ATTM.

...central Mediterranean...
Another focus for convective development will likely exist beneath upper cold pool over the central Mediterranean ... dry NELY flow may limit depth of convection especially in the NRN portion of the TSTM area ... but a few lightning strikes and gusty winds may occur. Severe threat should be minimal with this activity.

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